Research &
Whitepapers.
Our methodology is open-source at the core. We believe in rigorous peer review and transparent quantitative frameworks.
The Cassandra and the Commander: Strategic Divergence in Decision-Dependent Forecasting
Refining the distinction between passive and active forecasting. We demonstrate how strategic actors maximize utility by diverging from base rates when the marginal elasticity of effort is high.
The Noll Framework: Operationalizing Art Market Analysis
An in-depth look at how we adapt Roger Noll's sports economics framework to decode the sociological and institutional drivers of asset appreciation in the art market.
The Efficiency Trap: Market Microstructure in Alternative Assets
An analysis of why traditional efficiency models fail in prestige-driven markets and how to exploit structural information asymmetries.
Causal Inference in Low-Liquidity Environments
methodologies for applying Structural Causal Models (SCM) to datasets with high sparsity and irregular time-intervals, moving beyond standard time-series analysis.
Behavioral Alpha: Quantifying the Winner's Curse
Using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to simulate auction room dynamics and identify optimal bidding strategies to avoid overpayment in heated markets.
Understanding Prices at Art Auctions: A Conceptual Framework for the Auction Price Mechanism
Noll, Laura Johanna (2022). The foundational theoretical framework providing a multi-dimensional approach to value construction and price mechanisms in global art markets.